冠状动脉慢性完全闭塞病变合并左心室收缩功能不全:治疗策略及生存模型Chronic total occlusion and left ventricular systolic dysfunction:effective treatment strategies and prediction model
张宇超,吴铮,高海,柳景华
摘要(Abstract):
目的 探讨冠状动脉慢性完全闭塞(CTO)病变合并左心室收缩功能不全(LVSD)患者接受CTO病变血运重建和最佳药物治疗(OMT)的临床获益,并开发有效的预后工具。方法 本研究连续纳入了2014年1月至2020年12月因CTO病变合并LVSD而住院的患者。根据患者是否接受了成功的CTO病变血运重建及OMT进行两两组合,并比较各组随访期间全因死亡率以及主要不良心脑血管事件(MACCE)的发生风险。采用随机森林、最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归及Cox回归模型构建列线图,以预测患者的远期生存率。结果 本研究共纳入987例患者,其中(CTO血运重建+OMT)组229例(23.20%)、(CTO血运重建+非OMT)组270例(27.36%)、(OMT+非CTO血运重建)组250例(25.33%)、(非OMT+非CTO血运重建)组238例(24.11%)。中位随访64个月,(CTO血运重建+OMT)组患者被观察到全因死亡、MACCE、心血管死亡、心肌梗死、因心力衰竭住院发生率最低。经协变量调整后,(CTO血运重建+OMT)组相比于(非OMT+非CTO血运重建)组与显著更低的全因死亡(AHR 0.60,95%CI 0.39~0.92,P=0.019)、MACCE(AHR 0.56,95%CI 0.41~0.76,P<0.001)、心血管死亡(AHR 0.40,95%CI 0.23~0.72,P=0.002)和因心力衰竭住院(AHR 0.53,95%CI 0.31~0.89,P=0.016)风险相关。基于随机森林、LASSO和Cox回归模型的结果构建了用于预测患者1年、3年和5年生存率的列线图,其C指数分别为0.682、0.731和0.721。对该模型进行了内部验证,校准图显示模型预测的概率与实际发生率之间存在较高的一致性。结论 本研究证实了CTO病变血运重建联合OMT对CTO病变合并LVSD患者的临床获益。本研究提供的列线图可作为预测患者远期生存率的初步工具,有望为临床策略的制订和长期疾病管理提供一定参考。
关键词(KeyWords): 慢性完全闭塞;冠状动脉血运重建;左心室收缩功能不全;诺曼图;最佳药物治疗
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 张宇超,吴铮,高海,柳景华
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